The 2037 treadmill, in your numbers.
Under FEMA’s Risk Rating 2.0, many NFIP premiums step up every year toward a full-risk rate — a phase-in the GAO expects to run until 2037. This calculator takes your current premium and your last renewal increase and shows, year by year, where that pace leads. It is a projection — arithmetic on stated assumptions, not a prediction and not a quote.
The background, briefly
Why premiums keep stepping up.
Risk Rating 2.0 repriced NFIP policies property by property. For homes priced below their full-risk rate, the increase is phased in under statutory caps: up to 18% per year for primary residences and up to 25% per year for other categories. Each renewal compounds on the last one. Source: CRS IF10988, via FloodZonePro desk brief, Oct 12, 2026
How long the climb lasts varies a lot. From agency data cited in a senators’ letter to FEMA: about half of primary residences take roughly 5 years to reach their full-risk rate (premiums more than double along the way), about 40% take roughly 10 years (premiums increase fivefold or more), and about 10% take even longer. Where your property sits in that picture depends on its full-risk rate — which this calculator does not know, and does not guess. Source: senators’ letter to FEMA citing agency data, via desk brief, Oct 12, 2026
The calculator
Project my premium to 2037
Two numbers from your own policy do most of the work: what you pay now, and how much your last renewal went up. Both are on your renewal letter. Everything this tool shows you is labeled projection — it follows from the assumptions listed under the results, and your actual renewals will differ.
Your projection — labeled as a projection
These figures are projections produced by compounding the numbers you entered at the rates stated below. They are not quotes, not guarantees, and not FEMA figures for your property.
Projected total of NFIP premiums, 2027–2037, at your rate: — (the sum of the yearly projection below, excluding the current year).
| Year | Projected NFIP — at your entered rate | Projected NFIP — at the statutory cap |
|---|
- Your current premium and last increase are your inputs, taken from your policy and renewal letter. We have not verified them.
- The projection compounds the same percentage every year to 2037. Real renewals vary year to year.
- Statutory caps used: 18%/yr primary residences, 25%/yr other categories (CRS IF10988). The cap limits the annual pace — it does not set your premium.
- We do not know your full-risk premium, so this projection does not stop at one. In reality, increases stop when a policy reaches its full-risk rate; for many homes that happens before 2037, which would make actual premiums lower than a full-length projection. Treat the later years as “if the current pace continued,” not as a bill you will receive.
- The private line, if shown, is your figure and your stated assumption — not a quote, not a market average, and not a promise. Private flood is not always cheaper than NFIP; for some properties it costs more, and for some it is not available. Only an actual quote for your address can answer that.
- Nothing here binds coverage. Premiums, caps, and program rules can change with FEMA guidance and federal law.
Honest unknowns
What this calculator cannot tell you.
- Your full-risk premium. That is the number the glide path is heading toward, and it is property-specific. It is not in this tool and we do not estimate it.
- Your actual renewal next year. Increases vary; the cap is a ceiling, not a schedule. Some policies decrease.
- Whether private coverage fits your property. Private flood held about 14% of all flood policies in 2025 and is growing (GAO-27-108012, via desk brief) — but availability, limits, and price are set property by property. A quote is the only way to know, which is why the next step below is a quote, not a conclusion.
- Whether the rules stay put. GAO has recommended replacing broad premium subsidies with targeted affordability assistance; Congress has not acted. Future law could change the path.
Want the concepts first? Read Risk Rating 2.0, explained and NFIP vs. private flood insurance.
Sources
Where every fact on this page comes from.
- FloodZonePro desk brief: FEMA Risk Rating 2.0 — 2026 Premium Trajectory and Equity Picture — Delia, Oct 12, 2026. Internal research brief consolidating the items below. All dated facts on this page were checked against it on October 12, 2026.
- Insurance Business — Oct 1, 2026, reporting GAO/FEMA figures: typical NFIP policy about $1,100/yr, up roughly 90% over five years; GAO expects the phase-in to run to 2037; NFIP policies 4.46M as of Aug 31, 2026.
- CRS IF10988 — statutory premium increase caps: 18%/yr for primary residences, 25%/yr for other categories. CRS R47000 — under the old system, primary-residence increases averaged 6–11%/yr since 2014.
- FEMA Risk Rating 2.0 state profiles (March 2021 policyholder analysis, republished April 2025) — Texas: 86% of policies on increases, 14% decreases; Texas aggregate projected increase about 53%. These are rollout projections, not 2026 actuals — the brief flags that distinction and so do we.
- Senators’ letter to FEMA (2025), citing agency data — about half of primary residences take ~5 years to reach full-risk rates (premiums more than double); about 40% take ~10 years (5x or more); about 10% take longer.
- GAO-27-108012 (Oct 2026), via desk brief — private flood held about 14% of all flood policies in 2025; 86% of high-risk properties lacked NFIP coverage as of April 2026.
Facts checked October 12, 2026. This calculator produces projections from user inputs and the stated assumptions above; it is guidance, not a quote, not insurance advice, and not a guarantee of any future premium. Nothing on this page binds coverage; policy terms are set by carriers and the NFIP.